Those picture
were created by Jean-Marc Côté in 1899 in
French. That were people in 1899 think what 2000 will look like. And most of
them have already come true. That's power by technology. Engineers made the
most of the effort. For example, Thomas Edison invented a lot of useful things
to make our life better. It's kind of funny that the vision of people in 1899
to see the future. Because of their imaginations, we can invent so many useful
things. -Hongyuan Xue Picture cite from: "Here’s What People In 1899 Thought The Future Would Look Like…." LittleThings.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 02 Nov. 2015.
Last week I wrote a blog post about Artificial Intelligence.
I wrote about its future, its developments, and the sci-fi aspect of it. I
touched on the idea found in many novels and movies about a dystopian robot
future, where robots had taken over humanity for their own gain. I personally
do not think this a real issue that we should be worrying about, but there is a
similar, yet almost equally pressing issue I think we as a society should be
worried about: Job Automation.
Bowling alley pinsetters setting up the pins for clients.
Have you ever used the self-checkout aisle at a grocery
store? What about an ATM? When was the last time you ever talked to an operator
when trying to make a phone call? Cashiers, bank tellers, and telephone
operators are just three jobs that are in varying stages of automation, and all
of which will be extinct in the future. In the US telephone operators are few and
far between, even though they were almost vital for phone communication in the
20th century. Bank tellers are still very common, but unless you’re
doing a complex transaction just about anything you do with them can easily be
done via an ATM. While self-checkout machines are sometimes tedious to use,
their technology is constantly improving. It’s estimated that there are at least
430,000 self-checkout machines in use globally today, which is more than
quadruple the amount in use in 2008.
This is only the tip of the iceberg. Technologies are
emerging today and will be emerging in the near future that will begin the process
of taking more jobs away from humans. People who drive for a living (e.g. taxi
drivers, semi-truck drivers, bus drivers) might not seem like they are at risk
of automation, but self-driving cars are becoming more and more of a reality.
Recently Tesla Motors introduced a new feature in their cars called the
Autopilot mode, which allows the car to automatically drive itself on certain
roads. Because it is relatively primitive technology, the driver is strongly
encourage to keep his/her hands on the wheel anyway, and it sometimes will not
work if the markings on the road are not easily visible. Other companies like
Google and Apple are working on their own versions of completely self-driving
cars, and the CEO of Uber has stated that the company plans to transition to
automated cars once they become common enough to do so. In the case of a
semi-truck driver, it is more economical to hire a self-driving truck than a
human driver. A self-driving truck doesn’t have to stop to rest, does not have
to eat, and is less prone to accidents.
Many fast food jobs are already in the process of being
automated. In Canada, McDonald’s has been rolling out self-serving kiosks that
feature a touchscreen the customer can use to input his/her order, without
having to interact with any humans. In France, these self-serving kiosks have
been in use for over a decade, and they handle about 40% of customers that come
into their restaurants.
Some people argue that artificially intelligent robots are
not capable of creativity, so jobs that require imagination like writers,
artists, and composers are protected from this kind of automation.
Unfortunately, this is not true. There are already robots capable of watercolor
paintings, writing news stories and quarterly reports, and even ones capable of
composing music. UC Santa Cruz professor David Cope created an AI named Emily
Howell, which is capable of creating musical compositions, and has so far
released two albums.
So what can be done about this? According to The Economist,
47% of all jobs will be automated by 2034, and no government is prepared for
that type of situation. During The Great Depression, the unemployment rate in
the US was about 25%, which means that if something is not done soon, we could
soon see the highest unemployment rate in the history of the US. The idea that
you must work to make a living will no longer be sustainable, and thus we may
end up needing a new system to survive on.
Many technologists and futurists have suggested the idea of
a basic income, which would be a guaranteed minimum income that would be just
enough for a person to provide the basic necessities they need in their life
like food and shelter. This understandably makes some people uncomfortable,
especially in the US, as it is reminiscent of extreme left-wing ideas of
redistributing wealth and creating a communist style economy. Nevertheless, job
automation is an issue that we as a society will be facing in the very near
future, and as of right now, we are not prepared to face the ramifications of
this change in the way our economy works. This is just one of many ways
technology will greatly impact our lives in the future, for better or worse.
-Erik B.
Sources:
Aun, Fred J. "Report: Retail Self-Checkouts To Quadruple By 2014." FierceRetail. FierceRetail, 22 July 2009. Web. 01 Nov. 2015.
Hine, Lewis Wickes. Pin boys working in
Subway Bowling Alleys. Digital image. Library of Congress, Apr. 1910.
Web. 1 Nov. 2015.
Kiss, Jemima. "Uber: 'we'll Ease the Transition to Self-driving Cars'" The Guardian. The Guardian, 16 Sept. 2015. Web. 1 Nov. 2015.
Rundle, Michael. "Half Of All Jobs Will Be Automated By 2034." The Huffington Post UK. Huffington Post, 17 Jan. 2014. Web. 01 Nov. 2015.
"Tesla's Autopilot System Is Creepy And Wonderful." YouTube. YouTube, 14 Oct. 2015. Web. 01 Nov. 2015.
I have always been fascinated by how science fiction movie makers were able to predict the future of technology and scientific breakthroughs way ahead of time. Movies such as Star Wars, Back to the future part 2, Starship troopers and Total Recall predicted the tech gadgets we use today. In Back to the future, Marty McFly’s children used smart eyewear. The eyewear is similar to virtual reality device like the Oculus Rift, or is it more like Google Glass? In Starship Troopers, soldiers were able to call and video chat with their families whilst in distant galaxies. In today ‘s world, we talk of Skype and Google Hangout amongst others. Science fiction might have predicted all these things and today they have blossomed into life. In Total Recall, airports used advanced X-ray screening. Could the futuristic dystopia have inspired TSA to use x-ray scanning for immigration check-in?
All these scenarios show that innovation lies in our imagination. My Introduction to Engineering and Design professor once highlighted that there is no wild idea when it comes to designs because the idea will be used to mold a great new idea. Perhaps we should call the “wild idea” a building block towards a better idea. Just as in science fiction movies, the predicted technology seemed impossible at that time but not anymore.As engineering students or prospective engineers, we should never be afraid of imagining and creating ideas than can change the world. We might just take after Steve Jobs. Who knows?
Sources
Angelova, Kamelia. "Movies Of The Past That Correctly Predicted The Technology We Have
Today." Business Insider. Business Insider, Inc, 25 Oct. 2014. Web. 01 Nov. 2015.
